After finishing Q2 as the only emerging market in positive territory, the effects of zero-COVID policy, a continued slump in the property market, and weakening global demand pushed Chinese stocks to the bottom of the EM index in Q3. The CSI 300 Index dropped by -14.3% over the three months from July to September 2022. Below, we offer deeper insights into third-quarter performance—including some bright spots among state-owned enterprises and technology with a policy tailwind—along with our thinking on October’s National Congress and what the rest of the year might have in store.

After lithium, coal and pork, polysilicon appears to be the next in line for potential government price interventions. In fact, polysilicon prices which have been on nine consecutive weeks of spiking spree, have reached 10-year high and the high prices have caused severe supply chain disruptions and suppressed domestic demand for solar panels – and in the process slow down the solar infrastructure build out in China. Such price intervention thus is envisaged to be a positive regulating event, that would shift the industry dynamics from upstream biased to more midstream and downstream actors, to rebalance the supply chain economics for long run sustainable growth of the industry ecosystem. In this article, we shall analyze this in greater details, and explain why despite the headline concerns it would be a positive event for the sector leaders including related constituents in the Premia ETFs, while the polysilicon market is expected to remain tight throughout the year due to persistent strong global demand and supply shortages.

As stocks around the world struggled in Q2 2022, China A shares produced a positive return, with the CSI 300 Index adding +6.2% for the quarter. This muted number nevertheless belies an action-packed three months, as investor sentiment toward mainland shares reached a low in April, with Shanghai and other major cities entering growth-stunting lockdowns amidst a rapid spread of COVID variants, only to recover sharply in May and June, as easing public health restrictions allowed Beijing to start ramping up a massive stimulus program intended to set the nation’s economy up for a strong second half leading into Q4’s National Congress. Here we offer some perspective on factor drivers in China’s market during the second quarter and comment on what might come next for Chinese stocks.

The term "dual circulation” is one of the hot searches in China and receives great attention after President Xi first expressed this idea at a top official meeting held earlier this year. He then elaborated further that China’s economic model will be involving an internal circulation developing a substantial domestic market, and an external circulation deepening the international trade. The latest meeting of Communist Party’s Central Committee reinforced this policy will be the core component of the 14th five-year plan for the development between 2021 and 2025.

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