The youth unemployment rate in China has been much talked about, however the phenomenon is often poorly interpreted without addressing the important nuances behind the structural, transformational and societal factors in China. In fact, the elevated unemployment rate is a transitional legacy from COVID and many countries also shared the experience of high youth unemployment. There is a lag in China’s youth unemployment data compared to western countries, given China’s relatively late reopening from the COVID pandemic. In this article, we discuss the structural factors contributing to the youth unemployment rate in China, and explain why the number will likely to decline and why the unemployed youth will be absorbed into workforce as China continues on its path of recovery.

In a refreshing break from the consensus of gloom surrounding China, Cambridge Associates wrote recently that the Chinese economy was not stalling. Meanwhile IMF holds steady its China GDP growth forecasts in the World Economic Outlook Update report released last week, at 5.2% for 2023 and 4.5% for 2024. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shares more about why China may surprise to the upside and the appeal of Chinese equities as a relative value play.

The US Federal Reserve pumps out an endless stream of zero interest rate money to finance the Government’s deficit spending. The handouts make most American workers better off financially during the pandemic than before. Meanwhile, the stock market soars. Not bad for the worst pandemic in 100 years. What can possibly go wrong?

Premia FAQ

The COVID-19 pandemic could accelerate new thinking about Emerging Markets in asset allocations.

Are US indices rallying because of COVID-19? The most common narrative is that “US stocks have been rising despite the pandemic.” Perhaps a more accurate explanation is “US stocks have been rising because of the pandemic”.

COVID-19 will likely go down in history as – among other things – an accelerant for a range of tendencies are already present prior to the pandemic. AC (after-COVID), these are the four major behavioral changes that are unlikely to revert to life as we knew it BC (before-COVID).