주요 인사이트 & 웨비나
Premia CSI Caixin China Bedrock Economy ETF (2803.HK), Premia CSI Caixin China New Economy ETF (3173.HK), Premia China STAR50 ETF (3151.HK), and Premia Asia Innovative Technology and Metaverse Theme ETF (3181.HK) recently completed the annual rebalancing exercise after market close on Jun 9th 2023. In this article we highlight the changes and provide a brief analysis of the post-rebalance profiles of each ETF.
Jun 19, 2023
중국 4월 데이터는 시장 기대치에 미치지 못했지만, 실망감은 시장이 자체적으로 매우 높게 세운 기대치에서 비롯된 것인데요. 사실상 이른바 4월의 "실망감"은 전세계적인 맥락에서 본다면 아주 다르게 보입니다. 이번 인사이트에서 당사의 선임 고문 Say Boon Lim은 중국의 자체 5% 성장 목표와 올해 중국이 세계 GDP 성장의 약 30%에 기여할 것이라는 IMF의 예상을 고려해볼 때 그렇게 높은 기대치에 미달한 것에 대한 실망보다는 더 큰 산을 볼 필요가 있다고 전했습니다.
Jun 08, 2023
과거 투자자들은 중국 주식 소유시 국영기업(SOE)보단 민영기업(POE)을 더 선호했습니다. 보통 민영기업은 더 효율적으로 운영되며 성장·이익·혁신을 추구하는 경향이 있는 반면, 국영기업은 보통 관료주의, 사회적 책임, 고용·사회적 안정 지원, 그리고 변화·혁신과는 거리가 먼 전통적인 사내문화에 얽매인 채 운영된다는 고정관념이 존재했기 때문이다. 그러나 정부의 강력한 지원 뿐만 아니라, 국영기업 개혁을 촉진하고 국영기업들의 가치 발굴을 강조하는 새 정책들이 속속 등장함에 따라, 이제는 이러한 고정관념을 타파할 때가 된 것 같습니다. 변화를 위해 노력하고, 또 진정한 경제 발전에 기여할 수 있도록 재편성되고 새로운 가치를 발견할 수 있게끔 정책 결정자들의 전폭적인 지지를 받는 국영기업들이 새로이 등장하고 있기 때문입니다. 이 글에서는 최근 인기를 끌고 있는 국영기업 리레이팅/가치 재평가 테마의 배경에 대해 논의해볼 것이며, 중국 국영기업 테마에 적절한 익스포져를 갖기 위한 최적의 방법을 소개합니다.
May 26, 2023
China’s stock market rode a wave of positive sentiment on a policy shift that brought the world’s second-largest economy out of lockdown, pushing the CSI 300 Index up 4.7% for the quarter and leading to even stronger performance for strategies applying intelligent factor tilts within the bedrock economy and new economy. Even so, macro data throughout the quarter charting China’s recovery from strict zero-COVID containment measures led some investors to question the strength and sustainability of the nation’s economic rebound. In this article, Dr. Phillip Wool, Global Head of Research of Rayliant Global Advisors discusses first-quarter performance and considers what the next phase of China’s reopening could mean for investors.
May 18, 2023
인터넷 플랫폼 기업들이 지난 10년 간 중국 테크 섹터를 주도해 온 주요 동력이었지만, 최근 실적 발표와 경영 방향성을 살펴보면, 이커머스·게임·승차플랫폼·라스트 마일 배송 등 업종들의 고성장 모멘텀이 대폭 둔화되고 있는 모습인데요. 정부 정책 변동·반독점법·데이터 보안 위반 등에 대한 우려뿐만 아니라 시장이 성숙 단계에 진입하면서 이들 사업 모델의 전망은 불확실해보입니다. 반면, 특히 반도체와 같은 하드코어 테크놀로지 섹터는 미국 바이든 행정부의 적대적인 조치에도 시장에서 떠오르는 업종으로 각광받고 있습니다. 이번 글에서는 왜 반도체 업종이 조만간 중국 주식 시장의 핵심 섹터 중 하나가 될 예정인지, 그리고 투자자들이 중국 테크 산업의 패러다임 변화에 맞춰 포트폴리오를 재구성하고자 할 때 왜 프리미아 차이나 과창판(STAR50) ETF를 활용하면 테크 산업의 성장기회들을 포착하기 좋은지 다뤄보도록 하겠습니다.
May 04, 2023
트레이더들은 1981년 영화 "포스트맨(집배원)은 벨을 두 번 울린다"의 영화 제목에서 차용한 표현을 종종 사용하곤 하는데요. 이 표현은 바로 투자자들에게 시장이 종종 진입하거나 빠져나올 수 있는 기회를 주곤 한다는 점을 가리킵니다. 올해 2월 초 S&P 500 지수는 장중 최고치인 4195를 기록했지만 2022년 1월부터 10월까지의 모든 하락을 되돌림했던 피보나치 되돌림 비율 50% 선을 넘어선 상태를 지속하지 못했던 시점, “포스트맨”이 처음 벨을 울렸다는 생각이 드는데요. Say Boon Lim 당사 선임 고문은 이번 글에서 미국 시장에 대한 밸류에이션 및 수익 전망을 다룰 것이며, S&P 500지수가 또 다시 피보나치 되돌림 비율 78.6% 저항선을 시험하고 있는 현 시점, 포스트맨이 막 두번째 벨을 울렸을 수도 있습니다.
Apr 13, 2023
Banking failures in the US, the recent epic takeover of Credit Suisse and the wipe out of its AT1, speak volumes about the stage of the cycle in Developed Markets. In particular, they warn against underestimating the risks at this stage of the asset and economic cycles. The Fed now risks a return to 1970-1985 if it loses its nerve on rates, and it is going into battle with very little – rates are lower than at previous cyclical bottoms and inflation is higher. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shares his reflections on the US cycle, inflations, rates and asset markets, and while US asset market outlook is worrying, why China is increasingly becoming a safe haven trade for investors.
Mar 20, 2023
중국 시장은 2022년 10월 이후 중국 리오프닝과 코로나 정책 완화에 따른 강한 반등세를 보였는데요. 해외 중국주식에서 장기적인 강세장에 돌입하여 초과수익률을 낼 수 있을 것으로 기대되는 중국A주로 투자 자금 흐름 로테이션이 관찰되기 시작했습니다. 중국은 현재 리오프닝 경기 회복 궤도 속 어느 지점에 있을까요? 초과수익률을 가져다 줄 수 있는 정책 지원 섹터 리딩기업들은 무엇일까요? 이는 저희 클라이언트들에게 자주 받는 질문들입니다. 이번 글에서는 투자자 분들과의 대화 중 최근에 가장 많았던 질문 10가지를 소개해드리려고 합니다. 또, 중국의 리오프닝 그리고 그 다음 챕터인 경제성장 회복 궤도 속에서 발생되는 기회들에 대한 인사이트를 공유합니다.
Mar 17, 2023
China market has taken a pause after a strong rally in the past few months. The renewed hawkish tone from the US Fed may be the main reason behind the consolidation. Some critics are suggesting that the China reopening trade is done, or has become overcrowded already with not much immediate upside as a tactical trade. In this article, our Partner & Co-CIO David Lai addresses this topic from various aspects ranging from macro economies, investors’ positioning, to policy agenda and market valuation. He would also share why we believe it’s onshore A-shares that are picking up the baton for the second act of the rally - as the China reopening play evolves from short term tactical, to fundamental strategic opportunities driven by positive earnings growth and restoration of business and consumer confidence.
Mar 02, 2023
Chinese stocks took a rollercoaster ride in Q4, as the immediate lacklustre reaction to October’s National Congress gave way to a rally on the back of policy support in November. Investors finally cheered Beijing’s abrupt dismantling of its restrictive zero-COVID policies, as the year came to a close. By the end of December, the CSI 300 Index was up 2% on the quarter. Below in this article, Dr. Philip Wool, Managing Director and Head of Investment Solutions of Rayliant Global Advisors, would explore critical developments in the macro picture at the turn of the year, discuss fourth-quarter performance and factor rotation pattern through the period, and also provide our thoughts as to what reopening has in store for Chinese stocks in 2023.
Feb 04, 2023
토픽별
주간 차트
Research & Analytics
Asian US dollar IG credit has been outperforming the US IG and EU IG both year-to-date and over a three-year horizon due to several favourable factors, including attractive yields and a supportive issuance dynamic amongst Asian issuers. With the election settled, among the many policies laid out in Trump 2.0, two key issues that have concerned global investors are the US debt outlook and the impact of tariff to global growth, particularly in European countries.Since election settled in early November the market focus has shifted to the projected debt level of the US government. Back in March 2024, the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published a report on the long-term budget outlook for 2024 to 2054, highlighting that the US debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach a staggering 200% by 2050. This increase will be driven by rising spending programs, which will require the government to issue more US Treasuries. The rising debt trend, coupled with recently released strong U.S. economic data, has caused major concerns among global investors, pushing U.S. yields higher across the curve recently.In fact, over the last few years when yields increase, it become less appealing for Asian issuers to issue new debt in US dollars. As a result, when yields rise, the supply of Asian dollar credit diminishes, leading to tighter credit spreads and further enhancing the performance of existing bonds. For instance, during mid-November China issued USD denominated government bonds at a very tight spread, which began trading with a negative spread.Currently, the rate cut cycle has begun, and yields have been trending lower, which could enhance the attractiveness of Asian dollar credit even further. However, looking ahead, expectation for future yields are characterised by volatility. While the recent appointment of Scott Bessent as the new US Treasury Secretary is viewed positively for the bond market – suggesting potential fiscal restraint – investors remain concerned about the trajectory of the US fiscal deficit and projections on the Debt-to-GDP. This backdrop creates a climate of uncertainty among investors, who may increasingly prefer the relative stability offered by Asia dollar credit amid these challenges.On the tariff front, the broad tariff would likely erode Eurozone GDP by approximately 1% as the biggest European countries such as Germany and France are also the most exposed to trade. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are forecasting a fragile recovery in the Euro area, which would lead to further ECB rate cuts. While the duration would benefit EU IG in light of the rate cut, some of the gains may be offset by the heightened downgrade risks with the lower growth outlook and sluggish activity as reported by Fitch Ratings. Return is further eroded for dollar-based investors as a lower ECB policy rate will likely lead to depreciation in the euro and therefore losses due to currency exposures. Recently, we observed some of this trend as the Euro weakened from ~1.10 to ~1.05 against the US dollar in just a month, currency effect detracted almost 4.0% from returns during that period, and more rate cuts are expected to come. Given these dynamics, we believe Premia J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Investment Grade USD Bond ETF (9411 HK) is a better opportunity set and a very cost efficient allocation tool with total expense ratio of only 0.23% p.a. and is not subject to US withholding tax. The ETF consisted of high-quality USD bonds by investment grade sovereign, quasi-sovereign, and corporate issuers from Asia ex-Japan region:- Comparing to both US IG and EU IG, JACI IG’s lower duration and higher yield presents a better risk trade-off between yield and duration.- Comparing to US IG, JACI IG’s lower new issuance should provide a better price dynamic while maintaining a higher yield- Comparing to EU IG, JACI IG provides 2% higher yield and without the currency risks To facilitate investor access primary market liquidity, we have also worked with our business partners to keep the creation/ redemption fee to only US$250 per trade and creation/ redemption size to 50,000 units only (~US$500,000) which are a fraction of typical levels for other USD credit bond ETFs.BBG TickerAbbreviationLong NameJPEIJAIG IndexJACI IGJ.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index - Investment Grade in USDLBUSTRUU IndexUS IGBloomberg US Aggregate Total Return Index in USDI02503US Index / LP06TRUU IndexEU IGBloomberg Pan-European Aggregate Total Return Index in USD (unhedged)SBWGU IndexWGBIFTSE World Government Bond Index USD (unhedged)IDCOT20 IndexUST 20YICE US Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index USDIDCOT7 IndexUST 7-10YICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index USD
Nov 26, 2024