주요 인사이트 & 웨비나
Global equities look likely to push higher in 2021, despite the pandemic’s economic and human toll.
Dec 23, 2020
To summarize the year of 2020, the opening lines from Charles Dicken’s A Tale of twin cities sounds like an accurate description. It was certainly the best of times and the worst of times. Global equities have been doing reasonably well with developed market up by 12.0% and emerging market up by 11.7%. Fixed income managed to gain by 7.4% whilst gold price was up by 19.1%. On the other hand, real economy has been suffering from the pandemic with almost all major economies getting into recession. International Monetary Fund sees the world would contract by 4.4% in total output, the worst crisis since the 1930s Great Depression with -5.8% among advanced economies and -3.3% on developing countries.
Dec 02, 2020
From a total portfolio perspective, global asset owners and allocators are increasing wary about the overall portfolio sensitivity to interest rate changes and ultimately risk diversification. The concept of “equity duration” was raised long ago and has been subject to debate for decades. While some absolute calculations fail to work in today’s markets, we believe the economic and financial intuition beneath still hold. In this working paper, we took a renewed approach to analyze the relationships from a relative perspective and with an overarching objective of total portfolio risks in mind.
Nov 26, 2020
A major global trading and geopolitical event happened last week, attracting relatively little commentary from a media more preoccupied with US politics and the pandemic.
Nov 24, 2020
As business activities in China mostly resume to a normal level, we also observed some mean-reversion in factor returns, and interesting rotation in sector returns. Still, China A shares continue to outperform the US and global equity markets. With “high-quality” growth emphasized by the 14th Five-Year Plan and “Dual Circulation”, we believe “Quality Growth” will continue to be the main tone of China A equities.
Nov 11, 2020
So, it is official: Exit Donald Trump, enter President Joe Biden. And when the cheering and crying is done, we are likely to see that the election meant more emotionally to Americans than it does economically for the nation, or financially for the markets. The big economic and market trends are unlikely to be changed by the election.
Nov 09, 2020
China’s 14th, Five-Year Plan is a refreshing reiteration of conventional supply side policies, at a time when Developed Markets are in the grip of very unorthodox economic policies.
Nov 04, 2020
The term "dual circulation” is one of the hot searches in China and receives great attention after President Xi first expressed this idea at a top official meeting held earlier this year. He then elaborated further that China’s economic model will be involving an internal circulation developing a substantial domestic market, and an external circulation deepening the international trade. The latest meeting of Communist Party’s Central Committee reinforced this policy will be the core component of the 14th five-year plan for the development between 2021 and 2025.
Nov 04, 2020
The latest economic data confirms the upward trajectory of Chinese growth, putting China on track to be the only major economy to register growth for the full year 2020. And it highlights the attractiveness of China’s asset markets and supports the case for continued outperformance against other major markets.
Oct 28, 2020
Two separate news items last week focused our attention on the gap in understanding about the rapidly changing energy landscape in China.
Oct 20, 2020
토픽별
주간 차트
David Lai , CFA
CFA
An increasing number of analysts are reaffirming a constructive outlook on China’s housing market, as supportive policies help shift the narrative from crisis to structural recovery. According to HSBC, a combination of factors—including supply constraints, credit normalization, and policy convergence—is driving a turnaround in the property sector. The average home mortgage rate has dropped to a record low of 3.1%, down significantly from 5.6% in 2021. In Q1 2025, rental yields exceeded mortgage rates in 42 out of 129 major cities, compared to just 12 cities a year earlier, resulting in a positive cost of carry. Additionally, household mortgage burdens have eased, with the mortgage-to-income ratio falling to 42%—a decade low—from 57% in 2021. For developers, funding costs are also at record lows. State-owned enterprise (SOE) operators now face average borrowing costs of 3.46%, with some construction loans as low as 1.8%. This sharp reduction in interest expenses is helping restore profitability, ensure project completion, and free up capital for land acquisition. On the inventory front, 14 cities saw over a 20% drop in housing stock between April 2024 and March 2025, with Shenzhen’s inventory hitting a three-year low. Meanwhile, the offshore bond market is beginning to reopen for quality issuers facing near-term dollar bond maturities. For instance, Greentown China and Beijing Capital Land successfully returned to the primary market in March, raising a combined US$1.45 billion—breaking a two-year issuance drought. Investors seeking exposure to this segment can consider the Premia China USD Property Bond ETF, which has delivered a solid 8.9% return year-to-date.
Apr 28, 2025
