China’s stock market rode a wave of positive sentiment on a policy shift that brought the world’s second-largest economy out of lockdown, pushing the CSI 300 Index up 4.7% for the quarter and leading to even stronger performance for strategies applying intelligent factor tilts within the bedrock economy and new economy. Even so, macro data throughout the quarter charting China’s recovery from strict zero-COVID containment measures led some investors to question the strength and sustainability of the nation’s economic rebound. In this article, Dr. Phillip Wool, Global Head of Research of Rayliant Global Advisors discusses first-quarter performance and considers what the next phase of China’s reopening could mean for investors.

May 18, 2023

인터넷 플랫폼 기업들이 지난 10년 간 중국 테크 섹터를 주도해 온 주요 동력이었지만, 최근 실적 발표와 경영 방향성을 살펴보면, 이커머스·게임·승차플랫폼·라스트 마일 배송 등 업종들의 고성장 모멘텀이 대폭 둔화되고 있는 모습인데요. 정부 정책 변동·반독점법·데이터 보안 위반 등에 대한 우려뿐만 아니라 시장이 성숙 단계에 진입하면서 이들 사업 모델의 전망은 불확실해보입니다. 반면, 특히 반도체와 같은 하드코어 테크놀로지 섹터는 미국 바이든 행정부의 적대적인 조치에도 시장에서 떠오르는 업종으로 각광받고 있습니다. 이번 글에서는 왜 반도체 업종이 조만간 중국 주식 시장의 핵심 섹터 중 하나가 될 예정인지, 그리고 투자자들이 중국 테크 산업의 패러다임 변화에 맞춰 포트폴리오를 재구성하고자 할 때 왜 프리미아 차이나 과창판(STAR50) ETF를 활용하면 테크 산업의 성장기회들을 포착하기 좋은지 다뤄보도록 하겠습니다.

May 04, 2023

트레이더들은 1981년 영화 "포스트맨(집배원)은 벨을 두 번 울린다"의 영화 제목에서 차용한 표현을 종종 사용하곤 하는데요. 이 표현은 바로 투자자들에게 시장이 종종 진입하거나 빠져나올 수 있는 기회를 주곤 한다는 점을 가리킵니다. 올해 2월 초 S&P 500 지수는 장중 최고치인 4195를 기록했지만 2022년 1월부터 10월까지의 모든 하락을 되돌림했던 피보나치 되돌림 비율 50% 선을 넘어선 상태를 지속하지 못했던 시점, “포스트맨”이 처음 벨을 울렸다는 생각이 드는데요. Say Boon Lim 당사 선임 고문은 이번 글에서 미국 시장에 대한 밸류에이션 및 수익 전망을 다룰 것이며, S&P 500지수가 또 다시 피보나치 되돌림 비율 78.6% 저항선을 시험하고 있는 현 시점, 포스트맨이 막 두번째 벨을 울렸을 수도 있습니다.

Apr 13, 2023

Banking failures in the US, the recent epic takeover of Credit Suisse and the wipe out of its AT1, speak volumes about the stage of the cycle in Developed Markets. In particular, they warn against underestimating the risks at this stage of the asset and economic cycles. The Fed now risks a return to 1970-1985 if it loses its nerve on rates, and it is going into battle with very little – rates are lower than at previous cyclical bottoms and inflation is higher. In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim shares his reflections on the US cycle, inflations, rates and asset markets, and while US asset market outlook is worrying, why China is increasingly becoming a safe haven trade for investors.

Mar 20, 2023

중국 시장은 2022년 10월 이후 중국 리오프닝과 코로나 정책 완화에 따른 강한 반등세를 보였는데요. 해외 중국주식에서 장기적인 강세장에 돌입하여 초과수익률을 낼 수 있을 것으로 기대되는 중국A주로 투자 자금 흐름 로테이션이 관찰되기 시작했습니다. 중국은 현재 리오프닝 경기 회복 궤도 속 어느 지점에 있을까요? 초과수익률을 가져다 줄 수 있는 정책 지원 섹터 리딩기업들은 무엇일까요? 이는 저희 클라이언트들에게 자주 받는 질문들입니다. 이번 글에서는 투자자 분들과의 대화 중 최근에 가장 많았던 질문 10가지를 소개해드리려고 합니다. 또, 중국의 리오프닝 그리고 그 다음 챕터인 경제성장 회복 궤도 속에서 발생되는 기회들에 대한 인사이트를 공유합니다.

Mar 17, 2023

China market has taken a pause after a strong rally in the past few months. The renewed hawkish tone from the US Fed may be the main reason behind the consolidation. Some critics are suggesting that the China reopening trade is done, or has become overcrowded already with not much immediate upside as a tactical trade. In this article, our Partner & Co-CIO David Lai addresses this topic from various aspects ranging from macro economies, investors’ positioning, to policy agenda and market valuation. He would also share why we believe it’s onshore A-shares that are picking up the baton for the second act of the rally - as the China reopening play evolves from short term tactical, to fundamental strategic opportunities driven by positive earnings growth and restoration of business and consumer confidence.

Mar 02, 2023

Chinese stocks took a rollercoaster ride in Q4, as the immediate lacklustre reaction to October’s National Congress gave way to a rally on the back of policy support in November. Investors finally cheered Beijing’s abrupt dismantling of its restrictive zero-COVID policies, as the year came to a close. By the end of December, the CSI 300 Index was up 2% on the quarter. Below in this article, Dr. Philip Wool, Managing Director and Head of Investment Solutions of Rayliant Global Advisors, would explore critical developments in the macro picture at the turn of the year, discuss fourth-quarter performance and factor rotation pattern through the period, and also provide our thoughts as to what reopening has in store for Chinese stocks in 2023.

Feb 04, 2023

In 2022, our Premia CSI Caixin China Bedrock Economy ETF (“the Bedrock ETF”) outperformed most of the market benchmarks, such as FTSE A50, CSI 300, CSI 500 and ChiNext, by around 10-24% points. In a backdrop of weak equity performance, investors favored low beta and volatility stocks with significant economic value and good financial health, which coincided with the Bedrock ETF’s underlying index methodology and broadly explained why the ETF outperformed in 2022. In this article, we would have a more in-depth look at the portfolio holdings’ companies and decipher drivers of the outperformance and whether this multi-factor approach of low volatility, value, quality and size tilts would continue to power outperformance in 2023.

Feb 03, 2023

Big, long-term trends could drive Developed Market bond yields much higher than the cyclical peaks that the market is currently pricing in. There are cycles and there are secular trends. If the super cycle of rates and yields has turned – off deep negative inflation-adjusted levels – then the lesser cycles could mean- revert a lot higher around long-term uptrends. And we are at this juncture at the moment, as the negative yielding bonds have literally disappeared - the global stock of negative yielding bonds had gone from a peak of US$18.4 trillion late in 2020 to zero recently. What are the true implications behind this abrupt turn of tides? In this article, our Senior Advisor Say Boon Lim discusses the big drivers for potentially much higher rates and yields for this year, and areas we are spending a lot more time monitoring, as the longer-term outlook could be far worse than just a mean reversion in nominal rates and yields as we may also be in the midst of a secular mean reversion in real government bond yields and corporate credit yields.

Jan 17, 2023